Take-home lessons from most insightful, original, relevant scientific papers
⚠️ This book is generated by AI, the content may not be 100% accurate.
1 Decision Making
1.1 Daniel Kahneman
📖 People are often overconfident in their beliefs and judgments.
“People tend to overestimate the probability of events that are easy to imagine and underestimate the probability of events that are difficult to imagine.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
“People tend to be overconfident in their beliefs and judgments, even when they have little evidence to support them.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
“People tend to make decisions based on emotions and gut feelings rather than on logical analysis.”
— Daniel Kahneman, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness
1.2 Amos Tversky
📖 People tend to make decisions based on emotions rather than logic.
““Affect heuristic”: judgments are often based on feelings or general sense of something, rather than on facts or logic.”
— Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”
“People often overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities.”
— Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice”
“People tend to be more risk-averse when making gains and more risk-seeking when avoiding losses.”
— Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk”
1.3 Gerd Gigerenzer
📖 People are often better off making decisions using simple rules of thumb rather than complex models.
“Trust your gut over complex models in situations where you have to make quick decisions.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Psychological Science
In many cases, simple rules of thumb can lead to better decisions than complex models, because they are less likely to be biased by irrelevant information.
“Don’t try to be too precise when making decisions.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Judgment and Decision Making
When making decisions, it is often better to use rough estimates rather than trying to be too precise. This is because small changes in the input data can lead to large changes in the output of complex models, making them less reliable.
“Be aware of the biases that can affect your decision-making.”
— Gerd Gigerenzer, Behavioral and Brain Sciences
There are many different biases that can affect our decision-making, such as the confirmation bias, the framing effect, and the hindsight bias. Being aware of these biases can help us to make better decisions.
1.4 Max Bazerman
📖 People are often influenced by framing effects when making decisions.
“The way options are presented can influence the choices people make.”
— Max Bazerman, Thinking Strategically
Framing effects occur when the way information is presented influences the decisions people make, even if the underlying options are objectively the same. This can be due to the way the options are described, the order in which they are presented, or the perceived importance of certain attributes.
“People tend to be more risk-averse when they are considering losses, and more risk-seeking when they are considering gains.”
— Max Bazerman, The Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
This is known as the “loss aversion” effect. When people are faced with a choice between a sure gain and a risky gamble, they are more likely to choose the sure gain. However, when faced with a choice between a sure loss and a risky gamble, they are more likely to choose the risky gamble.
“People are more likely to take risks when they are feeling positive or optimistic, and less likely to take risks when they are feeling negative or pessimistic.”
— Max Bazerman, Psychological Science
This is known as the “affect heuristic.” When people are feeling positive, they are more likely to see the potential benefits of a decision and less likely to see the potential risks. Conversely, when people are feeling negative, they are more likely to see the potential risks of a decision and less likely to see the potential benefits.
1.5 Barry Schwartz
📖 People are happier when they have fewer choices to make.
“The more choices you have, the more likely you are to be dissatisfied with your choice.”
— Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
When we have a lot of choices, we tend to compare our choice to all the other options we didn’t choose. This can lead to us feeling like we made the wrong choice, even if we didn’t.
“The more choices you have, the more likely you are to experience decision fatigue.”
— Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
Decision fatigue is a state of mental exhaustion that can make it difficult to make decisions. When we have a lot of choices, we have to spend a lot of time and energy weighing the pros and cons of each option. This can lead to us feeling overwhelmed and making poor decisions.
“The best way to reduce the number of choices you have to make is to set limits for yourself.”
— Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less
One way to reduce the number of choices you have to make is to set limits for yourself. For example, you could limit yourself to only considering three options when you’re making a decision. This will help you to narrow down your choices and make a decision more quickly and easily.
1.6 Sheena Iyengar
📖 People are more likely to make a decision when they are presented with a smaller number of options.
“Personal shoppers who were faced with a smaller number of options were more likely to make a purchase than those who were presented with a larger number of options.”
— Sheena Iyengar, Science
This study suggests that people are more likely to make a decision when they are faced with a smaller number of options, as it is easier for them to mentally process and compare the choices that they have.
“People who were faced with a smaller number of options were more likely to be satisfied with their decision.”
— Sheena Iyengar, Psychological Science
This study suggests that people are more likely to be satisfied with their decision when they are faced with a smaller number of options, as they are able to spend more time considering each of the options that they have.
“People who were faced with a larger number of options were more likely to experience decision fatigue.”
— Sheena Iyengar, Journal of Consumer Research
This study suggests that people are more likely to experience decision fatigue when they are faced with a larger number of options, as it is more difficult for them to mentally process and compare the choices that they have.
1.7 Daniel Gilbert
📖 People are often bad at predicting their future happiness.
“People are bad at predicting the intensity and duration of future feelings.”
— Daniel Gilbert, Science
This is because people tend to rely on their current feelings to predict how they will feel in the future, but current feelings are not always a good predictor of future feelings.
“People are more likely to predict that they will experience positive emotions in the future than negative emotions.”
— Daniel Gilbert, Science
This is because people tend to be optimistic about the future and believe that things will get better over time.
“People are better at predicting the intensity and duration of future feelings for other people than for themselves.”
— Daniel Gilbert, Science
This is because people are able to take into account the other person’s circumstances and experiences when making predictions about their future feelings.
1.8 Thomas Gilovich
📖 People are often biased in favor of their own beliefs.
“People tend to overestimate the accuracy of their beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them”
— Thomas Gilovich, Psychological Bulletin
This is known as the “confirmation bias,” and it can lead people to make poor decisions.
“People are more likely to believe information that confirms their existing beliefs, even if that information is false”
— Thomas Gilovich, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
This is known as the “belief perseverance effect,” and it can make it difficult for people to change their minds.
“People are more likely to seek out information that confirms their existing beliefs, and they are less likely to consider information that contradicts them”
— Thomas Gilovich, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
This is known as the “selective exposure effect,” and it can lead people to live in “echo chambers” where they are only exposed to information that reinforces their existing beliefs.
1.9 Jonathan Haidt
📖 People’s moral judgments are often based on emotions rather than reason.
“Our moral intuitions are often shaped by our emotions, rather than by reason.”
— Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
Haidt argues that our moral intuitions are not the product of rational deliberation, but rather are the result of our evolved emotional responses to certain situations. These responses are often triggered by cues in the environment that remind us of our own experiences or values.
“We are more likely to make moral judgments that favor our own group, even when we know that those judgments are unfair.”
— Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
Haidt’s research shows that we are more likely to make moral judgments that favor our own group, even when we know that those judgments are unfair. This is because our moral intuitions are often based on our sense of loyalty to our group, rather than on our commitment to abstract principles of justice.
“It is important to be aware of our own moral biases, and to try to make decisions that are fair and impartial.”
— Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion
Haidt argues that it is important to be aware of our own moral biases, and to try to make decisions that are fair and impartial. This can be difficult, but it is essential for creating a more just and equitable society.
1.10 Paul Slovic
📖 People’s risk perceptions are often distorted by emotions.
“People tend to overestimate the risk of rare events and underestimate the risk of common events. This is because rare events are more likely to be memorable and emotionally impactful, while common events are more likely to be forgotten or dismissed as unimportant.”
— Paul Slovic, Perception
This lesson suggests that we should be cautious about making decisions based on our gut feelings or on vivid and emotionally charged stories. Instead, we should try to gather as much information as possible and to consider the risks and benefits of different options in a冷静, rational manner.
“People are more likely to take risks when they feel they have control over the situation, even if the risks are actually greater. This is because feeling in control gives us a sense of security and makes us more confident in our ability to handle whatever happens.”
— Paul Slovic, Journal of Experimental Psychology
This lesson suggests that we should be aware of the ways in which our feelings of control can influence our risk-taking behavior. We should try to make decisions based on a realistic assessment of the risks and benefits involved, rather than on our gut feelings or on our desire to feel in control.
“People are more likely to accept risks if they are presented in a positive frame, even if the risks are actually the same. This is because people tend to focus on the potential benefits of a decision, rather than on the potential risks.”
— Paul Slovic, Risk Analysis
This lesson suggests that we should be aware of the ways in which the way that risks are presented can influence our decision-making. We should try to consider the risks and benefits of different options in a冷静, rational manner, and we should not be swayed by emotional appeals or by overly optimistic presentations of the risks.